Week in and week out, the NFL never disappoints.

The first four weeks of the 2021 schedule have produced more late-game drama than any other season to this point. Road teams are winning more than home teams. A quarterback leads the league in rushing touchdowns. And seven teams that missed the 2020 playoffs have at least a share of their division leads, including the ARIZONA CARDINALS (4-0), who enter play as the league’s only remaining undefeated team for the first time since 1974.

The Week 5 forecast calls for more of the same, with occasional waves of double-digit comeback wins, including a good chance of games decided by a field goal or less. Games ending on the last play are likely, so prepare accordingly. And set your alarm to wake up early on Sunday, because the NFL is back in London.

EDGE-OF-SEAT DRAMATICS

This season has already seen 15 games decided on a game-winning score in the final minute of regulation or in overtime, the most such games through the first four weeks of a season since at least the 1970 merger.

Twelve of those contests have been won on the last play of the game.

The most games decided on a game-winning score in the final minute of regulation or in overtime through Week 4, since 1970:
SEASON GAMES
2021 15
2012 14
2013 13
2003 13


Including two Week 4 overtime games, which gave both the NEW YORK GIANTS and NEW YORK JETS their first wins, at least one game has gone to overtime in each of the first four weeks of the season. This marks the fifth instance ever in which at least one game has gone to OT in each of the first four weeks. It also happened in 1979, 1983, 2002 and 2018.

CLOSE SHAVES

Through four weeks, 17 of 64 NFL games (26.6 percent) have been decided by three points or fewer. At this point in a season, that’s tied for the fourth-most in league history.

The most games decided by three points or fewer through four weeks in NFL history:
SEASON GAMES
2011 19
2018 18
1999 18
2021 17
2012 17
1988 17

 

BACK TO LONDON

This week, the NFL continues an important initiative by returning to international play. Sunday’s schedule starts early with the first of two international games on the 2021 schedule when the NEW YORK JETS (1-3) meet the ATLANTA FALCONS (1-3) at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in London (9:30 AM ET/2:30 PM in the UK, NFL Network). Both the Falcons (2014) and Jets (2015) are making their second London appearances.

The NFL had played 28 regular-season games over 13 years (2007-19) until the pandemic kept all league contests in the United States last season.

BOUNCEBACK TEAMS

Through the first four weeks, 12 teams have at least three wins and seven of those teams were not in the postseason last year: ARIZONA (4-0), CAROLINA (3-1), CINCINNATI (3-1), DALLAS (3-1), DENVER (3-1), LAS VEGAS (3-1) and the LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (3-1).

  • Five teams that lost their season-openers – BALTIMORE (3-1), BUFFALO (3-1), CLEVELAND (3-1), DALLAS (3-1) and GREEN BAY (3-1) – have rebounded to win three straight games entering this week.
HOLDING ALL THE CARDS

The ARIZONA CARDINALS (4-0) can mark their best start in 47 years, since 1974, with a victory on Sunday against the SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (2-2) at State Farm Stadium (4:25 PM ET, FOX). The club enters this week as the NFL’s lone remaining undefeated team for the first time since Week 8 of that 1974 season, when the franchise, then based in St. Louis, started 7-0.

  • Arizona’s offense leads the NFL in both total yards per game (440.5) and points per game (35.0).
  • The Cardinals this season have opened 4-0 and scored at least 30 points with 400-or-more yards of offense in each of their first four games. Prior to this season, only three teams had done that, and each went to the Super Bowl: the 2013 Denver Broncos, 2007 New England Patriots and 2002 Oakland Raiders.
  • Three of Arizona’s wins this season have come on the road, and all have been by at least 12 points, including an impressive 37-20 triumph last week against the previously undefeated Rams.
  • The Cardinals have joined the 1980 San Diego Chargers as one of only two undefeated teams over the last 60 years to register three road wins in their first four games and win each by 12-or-more points.
  • This week, Arizona wide receiver DEANDRE HOPKINS (764 career receptions) needs one catch to surpass LARRY FITZGERALD (764) for the most receptions ever by a player prior to his 30th birthday. Hopkins will be 29 years and 126 days old on Sunday.
  • The 49ers, meanwhile, could start third-overall selection TREY LANCE at quarterback. If that happens, all five rookie quarterbacks taken in the first round of the 2021 NFL Draft will have made their starting debuts.
  • San Francisco’s DEEBO SAMUEL leads the NFL with 490 receiving yards. In franchise history, only Pro Football Hall of Famer JERRY RICE (522 in 1995) collected more through the first four games of a season.
CHAMPIONSHIP REMATCHES
The BUFFALO BILLS (3-1) travel to play the KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (2-2) on Sunday Night Football (8:20 PM ET, NBC). It’s the ninth time in 10 seasons that teams who played in the most recent AFC Championship are meeting the following year. Over the previous eight rematches, the winner of the rematch game has gone on to the Super Bowl five times, winning the Lombardi Trophy in four of those seasons. And in that span, the only time the winner of the rematch did not make the playoffs, in 2018, the losing team in the rematch went on to win the Super Bowl.

The winners of the last eight rematches of the prior season’s AFC Championship Game:
SEASON REMATCH WINNING TEAM’S SEASON RESULT
2019 Kansas City 23, New England 16 KC won Super Bowl
2018 Jacksonville 31, +New England 20 JAX missed playoffs
2017 New England 27, Pittsburgh 24 NE Advanced to Super Bowl
2016 New England 16, Denver 3 NE won Super Bowl
2015 New England 34, Indianapolis 27 NE advanced to AFC Championship
2014 New England 43, Denver 21 NE won Super Bowl
2013 New England 41, Baltimore 7 NE advanced to AFC Championship
2012 *Baltimore 28, New England 13 BAL won Super Bowl
*Postseason game; +Went on to win Super Bowl

This week’s game also pits Buffalo’s No. 1-ranked defense in both points allowed per game (11.0) and yards allowed per game (216.8) against Kansas City’s top-ranked offense in yards per play (6.9). The Chiefs also rank second on offense in total yards per game (427.5) and tied for second (with Buffalo’s offense) in points per game (33.5).

Buffalo has scored at least 35 points in three consecutive games. The Bills, who registered shutouts in Weeks 2 and 4, are the third team since 1990 to record two shutouts in their first four games of a season, joining the Ravens in 2000 and Washington in 1991.

Chiefs quarterback PATRICK MAHOMES made his 50th career start last week and recorded five touchdown passes while wide receiver TYREEK HILL totaled 11 receptions for 186 yards and three touchdowns in the Chiefs’ win.

  • Mahomes has a 40-10 record (.800) as a starting quarterback and joined Pro Football Hall of Famer KEN STABLER (40-9-1) as the only quarterbacks whose career began in the Super Bowl era to win 40 of their first 50 career starts.
  • With five touchdown passes in Week 4, Mahomes became the fifth quarterback in NFL history to register at least three touchdown passes in each of his first four games of a season, joining TOM BRADY (first 10 games in 2007) and Pro Football Hall of Famers STEVE YOUNG (first five games in 1998), DAN MARINO (first four games in 1987) and KURT WARNER (first four games in 1999).
  • Mahomes became the first player with four games of at least five touchdown passes in his first 50 career starts and tied Pro Football Hall of Famer DAN MARINO (four games) for the most such games by a player in his first five seasons all-time.
  • Mahomes has 25 career games with at least three touchdown passes and joined Pro Football Hall of Famer DAN MARINO (33 games) as the only players with at least 25 such games in their first five seasons in NFL history.
  • Hill, who recorded his fifth-career game with at least 180 receiving yards, is the fifth player with five games with at least 180 receiving yards in his first six seasons in NFL history, joining Pro Football Hall of Famer LANCE ALWORTH (eight games), CHARLEY HENNIGAN (seven), Pro Football Hall of Famer ISAAC BRUCE (six) and ANTONIO BROWN (five).
ROAD SWEET HOME

NFL teams in road games this season are 33-31 (.516), continuing a trend of road-team success that began in 2019. Since the beginning of 2019, road teams are 284-290-2 (.495).

The seasons with the highest winning percentage by road teams through four weeks, since 1970:
SEASON W L T PCT
1983 33 23 0 .589
2019 35 27 1 .563
1978 30 26 0 .536
1971* 26 23 3 .531
1972 26 24 2 .519
2021 33 31 0 .516
*Tie games did not count in winning percentage prior to 1972

Six clubs this season have at least two road wins through four weeks, including the DENVER BRONCOS (3-1), who put their 2-0 road record on the line this week against the PITTSBURGH STEELERS (1-3) on Sunday (1:00 PM ET, FOX).

  • Last week, Pittsburgh quarterback BEN ROETHLISBERGER threw his 400th career touchdown pass and became the eighth quarterback all-time to reach that milestone. Roethlisberger, who had 232 passing yards in Week 4, now has 61,381 career passing yards and also surpassed Pro Football Hall of Famer DAN MARINO (61,361) for the sixth-most passing yards in NFL history.
SOFI HOSTS ANOTHER SPOTLIGHT GAME

Another week, another big game at SoFi Stadium. Next up is a clash of three-win teams when the CLEVELAND BROWNS (3-1) face the LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (3-1) on Sunday (4:05 PM ET, CBS).

  • Chargers quarterback JUSTIN HERBERT is 7-1 over his last eight starts, dating back to Week 14 last season.
  • Herbert needs 300 passing yards this week to register the 11th 300-yard passing game of his young career and surpass PATRICK MAHOMES (10 games) and Pro Football of Famer DAN MARINO (10) for the most by a player in his first two seasons.
  • Last week, Los Angeles running back AUSTIN EKELER recorded his 18th career touchdown reception to surpass DANNY WOODHEAD (17) for the most by an undrafted running back in the common-draft era.
  • Cleveland’s NICK CHUBB ranks second in the NFL with 362 rushing yards, playing the lead role in an offense that leads the NFL in rushing (177.0 yards per game).
  • On defense, Cleveland’s MYLES GARRETT leads the NFL with six sacks.
ESTABLISHED, BURGEONING STARS FACE OFF IN CINCY

In another battle of one-loss teams, the GREEN BAY PACKERS (3-1) head south to face the CINCINNATI BENGALS (3-1) on Sunday (1:00 PM ET, FOX).

Last week, Packers quarterback AARON RODGERS recorded three touchdowns (two passing, one rushing) with no interceptions. He now has 420 career touchdown passes, tied with Pro Football Hall of Famer DAN MARINO (420) for the sixth-most all time.

Sunday is an intriguing matchup of Rodgers, the reigning league MVP, and Cincinnati’s JOE BURROW, the No. 1 overall selection in the 2020 NFL Draft.

Burrow last week led the Bengals back from 14-point halftime deficit, finishing with 348 passing yards and two touchdowns. He has at least two touchdown passes in each of his first four games this season.

The first 14 NFL starts in the careers of Aaron Rodgers and Joe Burrow:
RODGERS, 2008 BURROW, 2020-21
5-9-0 Record 5-8-1
63.5 Completion Pct. 66.9
3,470 Passing Yards 3,676
23 Passing TD 22
12 Interceptions 9
91.8 Rating 94.8

 

RAVENS HOST COLTS IN PRIMETIME

The INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (1-3) return to their franchise’s former home this week to face the BALTIMORE RAVENS (3-1) on Monday Night Football (8:15 PM ET, ESPN).

  • Last week, the Ravens rushed for 102 yards and now have at least 100 yards in 43 consecutive regular-season games, tied with the Pittsburgh Steelers (43 from 1974-77) for the longest such streak in NFL history.
  • Baltimore quarterback LAMAR JACKSON in four career starts on Monday Night Football has passed for 664 yards with eight touchdowns and no interceptions for a 111.9 passer rating. In those four starts, he’s also rushed for 388 yards on 38 carries (10.2 average) with two touchdowns.
  • Indianapolis has been stout against the run since the beginning of the 2020 season. The Colts rank third in rushing defense (95.2 yards per game) over that span. Over a longer stretch, since the beginning of 2018, the Colts have allowed a 100-yard rusher in only four of their past 52 games (DERRICK HENRY in all four games).
COMEBACK PLAYERS

The annual Comeback Player of the Year Award is meaningful because it’s the manifestation of a player’s ability to overcome personal adversity and return to contribute to his team’s on-field success. Two candidates for that award, running back SAQUON BARKLEY and quarterback DAK PRESCOTT, will be on the same field when the NEW YORK GIANTS (1-3) return to AT&T Stadium to face the DALLAS COWBOYS (3-1) on Sunday (4:25 PM ET, FOX).

  • Prescott last week threw four touchdown passes in the Cowboys’ win, his fifth career game with four-or-more touchdown passes.
  • Barkley, meanwhile, scored the game-winning touchdown in overtime last week. He finished with 126 scrimmage yards (74 receiving, 52 rushing), including a 54-yard touchdown reception that sparked an 11-point comeback in the fourth quarter.
  • Two rookie linebackers – New York’s AZEEZ OJULARI (3) and Dallas’ MICAH PARSONS (2.5) – are leading their respective teams in sacks. Last month, Ojulari became the first NFL rookie with at least one sack in each of his team’s first three games since TERRELL SUGGS in 2003.
  • Dallas cornerback TREVON DIGGS leads the NFL with five interceptions. Diggs is the fourth player since 1990 to record an interception in each of his team’s first four games of a season, joining DEVIN MCCOURTY (2019), BRIAN RUSSELL (2003) and OTIS SMITH (1995).
  • Giants quarterback DANIEL JONES leads the league among qualified players with 7.0 yards per carry (27 attempts, 188 yards, two touchdowns).
DUAL-THREAT QUARTERBACKS ON DISPLAY IN CAROLINA

Week 5 features five potential matchups of starting quarterbacks under the age of 27. One of those game is in Charlotte, where the PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (1-3) and JALEN HURTS square off with the CAROLINA PANTHERS (3-1) and SAM DARNOLD (1:00 PM ET, FOX).

  • Darnold leads all NFL players with five rushing touchdowns.
  • Last week, Darnold passed for 301 yards and totaled four touchdowns (two passing, two rushing). He became the first quarterback in NFL history to record five rushing touchdowns in his team’s first four games of a season.
  • Darnold, who also had two rushing touchdowns in Week 3, is the sixth quarterback since 1970 to record multiple rushing touchdowns in consecutive games.
  • Hurts, meanwhile, has 226 rushing yards, second among quarterbacks this season behind Baltimore’s LAMAR JACKSON (279).
WEEK 5 NFL SCHEDULE
(All times Eastern)
Thursday, October 7 Los Angeles Rams at Seattle FOX/NFLN/Amazon 8:20
     
Sunday, October 10 New York Jets vs. Atlanta (London) NFLN 9:30 AM
Philadelphia at Carolina FOX 1:00
Green Bay at Cincinnati FOX 1:00
New England at Houston CBS 1:00
Tennessee at Jacksonville CBS 1:00
Detroit at Minnesota FOX 1:00
Denver at Pittsburgh FOX 1:00
Miami at Tampa Bay CBS 1:00
New Orleans at Washington CBS 1:00
Cleveland at Los Angeles Chargers CBS 4:05
Chicago at Las Vegas CBS 4:05
San Francisco at Arizona FOX 4:25
New York Giants at Dallas FOX 4:25
Buffalo at Kansas City NBC 8:20
       
Monday, October 11 Indianapolis at Baltimore ESPN 8:15

Verwandte ArtikelMehr vom Autor

Abonnieren
Benachrichtige mich bei
guest
0 Comments
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments